Continuing signs of support for commodity imports around the world have persisted recently despite some adverse influences restraining cargo volumes. Further growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade during 2026 as a whole and into next year still seems a likely outcome.
 
Global economic growth in the past six months since the Middle East conflict began has proved more resilient than many expectations at the outset. Coupled with other more specific influences, dry bulk trade has benefited.
 
Negative effects on economic activity resulting from the disruption of energy supplies and higher prices for these have been contained, although the impact on individual countries has varied. But prospects for GDP growth remain greatly dependent on geopolitical events.
 
GRAIN & SOYA
Contrasting with positive influences elsewhere, in several parts of the grain and soya segment potential for a weakening in the 2026/27 year is evident. While soya trade’s upwards trend could continue, imports of wheat and coarse grains into a number of countries could be lower than seen in the previous twelve months, resulting in a reduced overall volume.
 
Forecasts of wheat plus corn and other coarse grains imports published by the US Department of Agriculture last month are shown in table 1, based on a July-June year for wheat and an October–September year for coarse grains. Following the upturn seen in 2025/26, the year ahead is expected to see reductions in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Although European Union imports could rise, global trade in 2026/27 is estimated to decline by 15mt (million tonnes) or 3%, to 453mt.
 
COAL
Constraints on world energy supplies this year are still providing advantages for coal trade. Among buyers in Asian countries especially, further indications of switching back towards steam coal usage in power stations have been seen. Prospects for major importers China, India, Japan and South Korea are viewed as positive.
 
At the beginning of this year a further annual reduction in China’s seaborne coal imports appeared predictable during 2026, after last year’s large fall. Potential for this outcome has receded. Coal imports into China (including land movements, but mostly seaborne) reportedly totalled 268mt in the first seven months of this year, a rise of 11mt or 4% compared with last year’s same period. Nevertheless, uncertainty about volumes in the remaining months persists.
 
IRON ORE
Additional iron ore imports into a number of countries seem likely in 2026, resulting in the upwards trend in world seaborne trade continuing. Larger volumes into China, Japan and South Korea among the biggest buyers are foreseeable, while Europe also may see an upturn.
 
Despite lower steel production, China’s imports have remained buoyant. Crude steel production was 3% lower in the January–July period amid weakness in consumption particularly in the residential property market. Yet iron ore imports in the first seven months rose by 40mt or 6% to reach 737mt. This growth has been explained by high port stocks together with constraints affecting both domestic output of iron ore and usage of scrap in the steel production process.
 
MINOR BULKS
Seaborne trade in the huge and diversified minor bulks segment is apparently strengthening although variations in performance among individual commodities have been visible. Notably, downwards pressure on fertilizer movements is a contrasting negative influence. But higher volumes of bauxite among other positive commodity changes are expected to provide further support.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Expansion of the world bulk carrier fleet this year may accelerate as shown in table 2. A growth rate approaching 4% in the twelve months to end-December 2026 mainly reflects estimates of much higher newbuilding deliveries than seen in recent years.
 
Scrapping may remain minimal, offsetting only about a tenth of the new tonnage entering the market.