Favourable grain trade signs

Some signs of more buoyant commodity import demand around the world have been seen recently, yet other indicators point to negative influences. Global seaborne dry bulk trade evidently saw very limited growth last year, and a similar outcome in 2026 is looking quite likely.

 

Positive effects from growth in economic activity among commodity importing countries during the twelve months ahead seem set to be restrained. Recent forecasts, such as that published by the OECD organization last month, suggest that China, Japan and the European Union, as well as the USA, are unlikely to see any improvement in GDP growth rates this year. World GDP could decelerate from 3.2% in 2025, to 2.9%.

 

In the grain and soya segment, by contrast, a distinct strengthening of global cargo movements appears to be unfolding. After a downturn in 2024/25, a sizeable increase in the current 2025/26 year ending third quarter 2026 is expected. Much higher imports into Asian countries, in particular, are envisaged.

 

World trade in wheat plus corn and other coarse grains could increase by 5% in 2025/26, based on calculations last month by the US Department of Agriculture, following the previous year’s 8% reduction. The total is forecast to rise by 21mt (million tonnes), reaching 447.2mt. As shown by table 1, much of this growth is expected to reflect stronger Asian import demand. Among these countries, a turnaround in China’s imports from steep reduction to recovery may contribute a large boost.

 

A large decline in world seaborne coal trade provisionally calculated at about 4–5% was recorded last year. Lower imports, especially steam coal, into China, India and some other countries were notable features. Amid downwards pressures from the decarbonization process on global movements of this commodity, a continued weakening trend seems foreseeable.

 

Estimates by analysts at the Australian Government’s Department of Industry published a few weeks ago emphasized the negative influences. World coal trade (including land movements, but mostly seaborne) may have fallen by 7% from the previous year to 1,441mt in 2025. A further 2% decrease to 1,412mt in 2026 is predicted, reflecting weakening steam coal trade and despite a possibility of additional coking coal movements.

 

Global seaborne iron ore trade has been benefiting from sustained buoyancy in China’s import demand despite the country’s lower steel production. Imports into Vietnam also apparently are still strengthening, preserving the rising trend seen over the past few years. Elsewhere, among the main buyers, adverse influences have been visible.

Further growth in iron ore trade during 2026 is estimated by some forecasters. A positive trend may be hard to achieve, however, especially if there is no more growth in China’s dominant import volume. Expectations for steel production in a number of the main raw materials importing countries remain subdued. Potential for Japan, South Korea and the European Union to increase steel output and iron ore usage seems limited.

Indications point to trade in fertilizers, a prominent minor bulks component, increasing in 2025. Total potash, phosphate (rock and processed), sulphur and urea seaborne movements may have been about 2% higher than seen in the previous twelve months at over 210mt. The upwards trend may persist in the year ahead based on tentative signs.

 

Among bulk carrier size groups, the world fleet of Handysize (10–44,999 deadweight tonnes) vessels — forming about 12% of the entire fleet’s capacity — grew by a steady 4% last year. As shown by table 2, Handysize capacity reached an estimated 132.4m dwt at year-end. In the twelve months ahead, both newbuilding deliveries and scrapping may be similar to recent levels, resulting in another year with a stable rate of Handysize fleet capacity enlargement.