Potential for negative influences to affect elements of commodity import demand during 2025 is evident, contrasting with signs of increases elsewhere. Estimates based on this outlook imply that world seaborne dry bulk trade growth may slacken, after growing solidly in the previous twelve months.
Prospects for economic activity, in countries with a large impact on import demand for dry bulks, imply that there will not be a large improvement in 2025. An assessment published by the OECD organization in mid-March suggested that “recent activity indicators have begun to point to a softening of global growth prospects”. Changes in trade policies if sustained could contribute to restraining global growth, reducing this to below last year’s 3.2% increase in gross domestic product.
GRAIN & SOYA
Forecasts of world trade in soyabeans and soyameal trade, during the current 2024/25 trade year ending September 2025, point to a continued upwards trend, albeit decelerating after rapid expansion. The latest US Department of Agriculture calculations show a 6mt (million tonnes) or 2% increase, from 248mt in 2023/24, to 254mt, as shown by table 1.
But by contrast the outlook for the bigger component of this market segment, trade in wheat plus corn and other coarse grains, is negative. USDA expect world trade in these grains to decline steeply by 47mt, a 10% reduction, to 419mt in 2024/25. If this prediction proves accurate it will reverse the previous year’s growth. About two-thirds of this decline is likely to be caused by China’s diminishing require ments, down by 33mt or almost half compared with the preceding twelve months.
COAL
Global import demand for coal is overshadowed by slowing consumption trends in many countries. The International Energy Agency’s new analysis estimates that coal import demand is still growing, with a 1% increase in 2024. Conversely in the European Union, previously a major coal importer, there was a further decline in usage amid an increasing number of countries closing coal-fired power stations.
Attention often focuses on the two countries comprising 50% of the world’s total seaborne coal imports, China and India. Both countries saw increases last year, and the growth was especially notable in China where enlargement has been remarkably strong since 2022. Currently there is little or no convincing evidence pointing to a slackening in Chinese buyers’ activity, but some observers doubt whether the upwards trend is likely to persist.
IRON ORE
Expectations for stronger 2025 steel production in raw materials importing countries are mostly cautious. Some signs suggest that higher crude steel production may be achievable in the European Union, while in India (a major coking coal importer) steel output could continue growing. Elsewhere flat or lower volumes are envisaged.
At the end of March an analysis published by the Australian Government Department of Industry estimated global iron ore trade (including land movements but mainly seaborne) at 1,699mt in 2025, a 1% reduction compared with last year. A lower volume into China, down by 15mt or just over one percent to 1,223mt is envisaged, together with predictions of declines in Japan and South Korea.
MINOR BULKS
Indications of movements in some elements of the minor bulk trades this year seem relatively bright despite obvious uncertainties. A number of elements connected with industrial (manufacturing and construction) activity, such as steel and forest products, bauxite/alumina and cement may see increases.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
In the Panamax (70–99,999 deadweight tonnes) size group, including Kamsarmax vessels — comprising one quarter of the world bulk carrier fleet —expansion during 2025 may be similar to that seen in the past couple of years, exceeding 3%. Newbuilding deliveries seem likely to rise, but potentially an upturn in scrapping will offset most of the growth in new capacity, although more signs of higher recycling activity are still awaited.