Import demand for some commodities is facing setbacks in a number of countries, but more positive developments are visible elsewhere. During 2026 as a whole and into next year, world seaborne dry bulk trade could continue growing at a modest rate, based on current indications.
Despite adverse effects from geopolitical events this year, with implications for energy markets and trade in several dry bulk commodities, economic growth around the world has proved fairly resilient. In early June the OECD organization provisionally reduced its forecast for global gross domestic product growth to 2.8% in 2026, over half a percentage point lower compared with last year’s 3.4%. Recent events tentatively suggest that a further downgrading may be avoided.
GRAIN & SOYA
Early forecasts for grain trade in the new agricultural year now starting suggest a downturn in the global volume, although soya trade may increase. Following a strong revival in the past twelve months, world trade in wheat plus corn and other coarse grains may see a decrease of 18mt (million tonnes) or 4% in 2026/27, according to US Department of Agriculture estimates.
Lower imports into the Middle East and North Africa regions, reversing upturns during the 2025/26 year, are expected to be the principal cause of weaker global grain movements. In many other countries signs point to only limited changes in foreign purchases, or stable volumes. But uncertainty still surrounds domestic summer harvests in northern hemisphere importing countries, the outcome of which may modify forecasts of supplies required from the international market.
COAL
Ongoing uncertainties surrounding global energy supplies, amid disruptions unfolding this year, have provided a boost for expectations about coal trade. Yet it is not clear at present how much additional volume, mainly in the thermal coal segment, will ensue. Another unclear aspect is whether and to what extent positive influences are likely to be sustainable rather than just providing a temporary uplift.
Coupled with other changes, a possible outcome for 2026 as a whole is a smaller global coal trade reduction than envisaged earlier. Instead of a further large decline to follow last year’s 4% downturn to about 1,330mt, world seaborne coal trade may be only marginally reduced or flat. Forecasts for China and some other importers remain negative, but in Asia the pattern of changes foreseeable is mixed, with several countries including South Korea and Vietnam now seeming likely to raise volumes.
IRON ORE
Seaborne trade in iron ore is also proving better supported than expected earlier, with some forecasts suggesting that growth similar to the 2025 increase of over 2% to 1,640mt may be achievable in 2026. Greater supply from exporters is a feature of this year’s trend, while import purchases have been underpinned by actual consumption of ore and additions to stocks.
The more positive perception, however, remains dependent to a large extent upon a continuation of an upwards trend being maintained in China. Weakness in domestic steel demand and production volumes is still a feature of the Chinese steel market. But other influences shaping the contribution of imported iron ore to raw materials usage are resulting in higher foreign purchases which, in the first five months of this year rose by 6% compared with last year’s same period.
MINOR BULKS
Seaborne trade in fertilizers, mainly potash, phosphate (rock and processed), sulphur and urea totalled about 210mt last year. It is experiencing downwards pressures this year, amid constraints affecting suppliers with some negative implications for imports.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
In the Handysize (10–44,999dwt) bulk carrier fleet segment, capacity growth may slacken slightly this year. Stable newbuilding deliveries together with perhaps higher scrapping could restrain expansion, after increases of about 4% annually seen in the past two years, as shown in the table.