Support for commodity import demand in a range of countries seems to be improving based on recent signs. Nevertheless weakening influences elsewhere are still prominent, suggesting that world seaborne dry bulk trade growth may be minimal or nil in 2025 as a whole and some restraints may continue into next year.
In the principal countries affecting global dry bulk commodity import demand, this year’s economic growth remains lacklustre and there are no indications at present of an upturn in 2026. A slightly more encouraging perspective, in a recent OECD organization report published last month observed that “global growth was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025”. But forecast world gross domestic product growth next year is estimated at below the current year’s estimated 3.2%.
GRAIN & SOYA
In the new 2025/26 marketing year now beginning, prospects for world grain and soya trade point to a recovery after the downturn seen in the previous period. Lower imports into China were the biggest influence on the reduced world volume in 2024/25, and an expected revival in Chinese buying is expected to be a large contributor to the global upturn during the twelve months ahead.
The outlook for a part of the segment — soyabeans and meal trade — is shown by the figures in table 1. US Department of Agriculture calculations suggest that soya trade in the current marketing year starting October could grow by 9.4mt (million tonnes) or 4% to 264.9mt, following a 3% decline to 255.5mt in the preceding period. While European imports may weaken, cargoes to Asian and some other destinations may strengthen, boosting overall activity.
COAL
Trends in recent months have tended to confirm expectations of a reduction in global seaborne coal trade during 2025 as a whole after continued expansion in the past few years. Currently further weakening looks quite likely next year also. Clear signs have been pointing for some time to a downwards trajectory in this trade.
Numerous Asian importers are experiencing adverse influences on coal import demand both in the coking coal and the dominant steam coal categories. Weaker steel industry activity has affected coking coal imports negatively. In India and China higher production of steam coal in domestic mines, more electricity generation from renewable sources and other factors have caused coal imports growth to moderate or reductions to unfold.
IRON ORE
Positive drivers of iron ore trade have been largely absent in 2025, and the result may be a flat global total compared with last year’s 1,600mt. This possible outcome mainly reflects a lack of further growth in China’s imports comprising three-quarters of the total. But slacker buying patterns are also evident in many other steel raw materials importing countries.
During the first eight months of 2025, China’s iron ore imports were about 2% lower than the volume seen in last year’s same period, at 802mt. Weaker require ments reflected lower crude steel production, which was down by 3% to 672mt in that period.
Expectations for the current year as a whole still suggest at least a marginal decrease in iron ore imports, and there are no convincing indications yet of any reversal of the trend in the following twelve months.
MINOR BULKS
Recently some elements of the extensive minor bulk commodity trades segment have been performing solidly, and the result may be a sizeable advance in the total during 2025. Among notable positive contributions, bauxite/alumina movements have been showing signs of vigorous expansion.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The Panamax (70–99,999 deadweight tonnes) size group including Kamsarmax vessels — comprising a quarter of the world bulk carrier fleet — continues to grow steadily at over 3% annually. Table 2 shows how the main components are evolving.