Although some elements of commodity import demand are seeing positive influences, others are experiencing restraints. World seaborne dry bulk trade growth in 2026 seems unlikely to achieve an improvement after last year’s sluggish rise.
Currently the broad progress of economic activity among countries influencing dry bulk import demand, an underlying driver, is not showing many signs of accelerating from the trend seen over the past twelve months. Recent authoritative forecasts have suggested the continuation of a fairly flat growth trend. There is an absence of visible potential changes in countries including China, USA, European Union and Japan which could provide a boost for gross domestic product and trade expansion.
GRAIN & SOYA
Contrasting with prospects for some other major commodity segments, the outlook for world grain trade in the current 2025/26 year is favourable. Updated forecasts published by the US Department of Agriculture a few weeks ago pointed to a possible large upturn after the previous year’s reduction. The total (wheat, plus corn and other coarse grains) is estimated to increase by 25mt (million tonnes) or 6% from the 2024/25 volume, reaching 454mt.
About two-thirds of the world growth is expected to reflect higher imports into a range of countries across Asia, as shown in table 1, which is based on a July/June year for wheat and an October/September year for coarse grains. Larger imports into the Middle East region may also contribute. A recovery in China’s imports, rising by a forecast 10mt from a depressed level to 33mt is predicted despite apparently ample domestic supplies of grain.
COAL
Following last year’s downturn and the generally negative longer term outlook for world seaborne coal trade, expectations for movements during 2026 are muted. While another annual downturn arguably is not an inevitable outcome of current changes among importers, the probability that a further weakening will occur seems quite high.
Among the biggest importers of coal, and especially among those having the greatest propensity for huge annual variations in import volumes, there are no signs of large extra purchases in the year ahead. But uncertainty is focused on China’s role as the top buyer. After the 10% decline in Chinese purchases to 490mt last year, the downwards trend seem likely to continue and, if it is another sizeable reduction, probably will not be offset by additional volumes into other countries.
IRON ORE
Expectations for iron ore trade in the current year reflect cautious views of prospects for steel demand and production in the main raw materials importing countries. Amid signs that demand from steel-using industries in many areas is likely to be affected by limited or no strengthening of economic activity, production of steel may continue to encounter restraints.
Evident downwards pressure on China’s steel production after last year’s 4% decrease appears set to be sustained. Elsewhere in other countries importing iron ore, positive influences are not prominent. In a group of major buyers, comprised of Japan, South Korea and the European Union plus United Kingdom (15% of global iron ore imports in 2025), growth may be hard to achieve.
MINOR BULKS
Based on tentative calculations, the large and diversified minor bulk commodity segment evidently saw a seaborne trade increase of 3-4% in 2025, benefiting especially from higher volumes of industrial commodities. The positive trend looks set to continue.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The world fleet of bulk carriers maintained its previous expansion rate in 2025, at 3%, as shown in table 2, the fourth consecutive year of expansion at an almost unchanged pace. Deadweight capacity reached 1,066mt at year-end. In the current twelve months to end-2026, a moderate acceleration could be seen as a result of a 20% increase in newbuilding deliveries, assuming that scrapping remains subdued at a minimal level.