Some slightly more positive commodity import signs have been seen in a number of countries recently. But adverse influences are also at the forefront, restraining world seaborne dry bulk trade which looks set to see little or no volume increase during 2025 as a whole and into next year.
 
Economic growth in the main countries having an impact on dry bulk commodity import demand is providing limited support. The latest authoritative forecasts for China, Japan, South Korea and the European Union show gross domestic product 2025 growth rates similar to or slightly below last year’s restrained performances.
 
Currently, expectations for an improving trend further ahead are not very optimistic, against a background of ongoing international trade tensions.
 
GRAIN & SOYA
By contrast, a distinctly brighter outlook is evident in the grain and soya trade segment. Although prospects for imports into the principal importing areas are mixed, tentative forecasts point to a world recovery in the new 2025/26 marketing year now beginning. If achieved, an upturn will reverse the downturn experienced in the preceding twelve months.
 
Estimates for the main importing regions shown in table 1 combine US Department of Agriculture calculations for wheat (July to June year) with those for coarse grains (October to September year). In 2025/26 the total volume is predicted at 442.1mt (million tonnes), 20mt or just under 5% higher compared with the 421.7mt estimated 2024/25 quantity. More than half of the increase could be contributed by larger imports into East Asia (including China), rising by 17% to 79.1mt.
 
COAL
The main negative element of dry bulk trade is coal, a foreseeable change in the trend apparently now beginning. It seems likely that both steam coal and coking coal global seaborne movements will be substantially lower this year and the downwards pattern may continue through 2026 as well.
 
Much of the weakness currently is concentrated in China and India, two countries which together comprise about half of the world imports total. China’s import volume (including land movements but mostly seaborne) in the first seven months of 2025 was 39mt (13%) below the same period of last year, at 257.3mt. Conversely, a rising trend in Vietnam’s steam coal purchases could raise this year’s volume by about 8% to over 65mt, amid strongly expanding electricity usage.
 
IRON ORE
Recent indications suggest that world seaborne iron ore trade during 2025 may not continue the upwards trajectory observed over the past two years, and a reduction is foreseen by some analysts. A prominent influence is the negative performance of the steel industry in raw materials importing countries, reflecting subdued usage of steel in consuming sectors.
 
Data compiled by the World Steel Association emphasizes the weak pattern. In the first seven months of this year, compared with last year’s same period, crude steel production was 3–5% lower in numerous countries. China’s output saw a 3% decline to 595mt. South Korea’s output also decreased, by 3% to 36mt. In the European Union a 4% fall to 76mt was seen, while Japan’s production fell by 5% to 48mt.
 
MINOR BULKS
Within the huge and diversified minor bulks segment, comprising about two-fifths of world dry bulk commodity trade, some elements are difficult to track. Among the more visible components, several may support a sustained expansionary trend this year, including growth in cement and especially bauxite trade.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Enlargement of cargo-carrying capacity in the world fleet of bulk carriers is expected to be similar to last year’s addition in 2025. As shown in table 2, by the end of this year capacity could be about 3% above the figure seen twelve months earlier, at 1066 million deadweight tonnes, a 3% rise. Both newbuilding deliveries and scrapping totals may increase.