Support for import demand among commodity buyers in a range of countries seems to be remaining solid, although signs of slackening in some other areas are also apparent. The result could be a continuation of annual growth in world seaborne dry bulk trade during 2026 and into next year.
A more resilient pattern of global economic activity than expected earlier has been a feature in recent months, providing underlying benefits for dry bulk trade. The latest (early July) International Monetary Fund update suggested that a “modest slowdown” across the world is unfolding albeit with downside risks. Although the Middle East hostilities are a negative influence, according to IMF economists the global economy as a whole has, so far “weathered the shock from the war better than feared”.
COAL
Indications of additional support for coal trade caused by tighter world energy supplies have emerged, reinforced by the severe constraints on fossil fuel availability continuing over recent months. Countries in Asia with under-utilized coal-fired power station capacity have partially switched fuel sources towards extra coal consumption.
Yet forecasters are not all revising estimates upwards enough to show no further decline in coal trade after last year’s reduction. At the beginning of last month, for example, analysts at the Australian Government’s industry department estimated that world coal trade (including land movements, but mostly seaborne) could be 41mt (million tonnes) or almost 3% lower in 2026, at 1,418mt, from 1,459mt last year. Lower imports into China are expected to comprise about two-thirds of the fall in the global volume.
IRON ORE
Seaborne trade in steel industry raw materials is holding up better than earlier predictions suggested. Iron ore trade is showing signs of a significant advance in the current year as a whole, with increases occurring in a range of importing countries in Asia and Europe, partly offset by lower volumes into the Middle East region.
Changes in steel production in major raw materials importing countries provide a mixed background. During the first half of 2026, China’s crude steel production was 3% below the volume recorded in last year’s first six months, at 500mt.
Two other prominent importers, the European Union and Japan, saw only minimal decreases of –0.3% and –0.4% respectively, to 65.4mt and 40.4mt. By contrast, South Korea’s volume was up by 2% at 31.7mt.
GRAIN & SOYA
Forecasts of grain trade in the current crop year remain negative. The latest (mid-July) calculations by the US Department of Agriculture indicate that world trade in wheat plus corn and other coarse grains could decline by 14mt or 3% to 454mt in 2026/27 now beginning, from 467mt in the previous twelve months. Conversely, soyabeans and meal trade is still expected to increase.
Grain trade in 2026/27 (starting July for wheat, October for coarse grains) is expected to weaken, mainly due to lower imports into the Middle East and North Africa regions. These could fall by 10% to 61.6mt, and by 12% to 56.2mt respectively. Signs of upturns in other areas which could partly compensate are not prominent at present. But results for domestic harvests in northern hemisphere importing countries are still awaited, possibly with positive implications for imports, such as in Europe.
MINOR BULKS
Trade in aluminium raw materials — bauxite and the processed alumina — is a dynamic part of the minor bulks segment. Global seaborne movements could rise by 10% or more in 2026, exceeding 300mt, based on current estimates, with much higher imports into China contributing a large part of the overall expansion.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Newbuilding bulk carriers entering the world fleet in 2026 are expected to increase sharply compared with last year’s capacity addition. As shown by table 2, higher volumes of Panamax and Capesize/larger tonnage in particular are predicted.