Restraints on commodity imports in a number of countries became more obvious in the past few months. If this trend persists, it could imply little or no annual growth in world seaborne dry bulk trade during 2025, and the pattern may continue into the early part of next year.
International trade policy changes and geopolitical events have exacerbated the usual uncertainties surrounding economic activity globally and in the main dry bulk importing countries. Last month analysts at the OECD organization suggested that “the global economy has shifted from a period of resilient growth and declining inflation to a more uncertain path”. Forecast 2025 world gross domestic product growth was cut by almost a half percentage point to 2.9% after 3.3% in 2024.
GRAIN & SOYA
One brighter aspect emerging is the outlook for grain trade, following a sharp downturn in trade year 2024/25 now ending. In 2025/26 (starting this month for wheat, and October for corn and other coarse grains) an increase of 21mt (million tonnes) or 5% in world wheat and coarse grains is expected. US Depart ment of Agriculture calculations show a total of 439mt, up from 418mt in the previous year.
Higher imports into China are predicted to provide a large contribution to the global revival, rising by10mt (40%) to 34.5mt, a recovery after a slump in the past twelve months. Larger volumes into other Asian countries, the Middle East area and elsewhere could be seen. Expectations are still tentative, because the results of summer northern hemisphere domestic harvests in importing countries are awaited, and foreign buying may be modified by domestic crop yield outcomes.
COAL
A negative performance by world coal trade is becoming more likely in 2025. Weakness in China’s imports has been an especially prominent feature in recent months, while there are also signs of a slacker trend in India. Several forecasters are now envisaging a large reduction in the annual global total.
The latest end-June quarterly forecast by analysts at the Australian Government Department of Industry suggests a sizeable reduction. Global trade in steam and coking coal — including some overland movements but mostly seaborne — is estimated to decline by 53mt or 3.5% in 2025 to 1,462mt, from 1,515mt last year. The breakdown shows a 58mt (11%) decline in China to 478mt, and a 4mt (2%) decrease in India to 247mt, partly offset by some growth elsewhere.
IRON ORE
Another major component of dry bulk commodity trade, iron ore, is also `showing signs of difficulty in sustaining an upwards trend. This year’s total may be flat or, perhaps more likely, down by a couple of percentage points compared with growth in the past two years.
Further evidence of subdued import demand for steelmaking raw materials is provided by steel production data. According to the World Steel Association’s figures, crude steel output in the first five months of 2025 compared with last year’s same period was lower in many of the main producing and iron ore importing countries — down by 1.7% in China, 2.5% in the European Union, 3% in South Korea and by 5% in Japan.
MINOR BULKS
Trade in fertilizers, mainly comprising potash, phosphates (rock and processed), sulphur and urea is a large element of the minor bulks segment. Estimates suggest brisk growth has been occur ring, raising the global seaborne fertilizer trade total to about 205mt in 2024, and an upwards trend seems to be continuing.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Handysize (10-44,999 deadweight tonnes) vessels represent about 12% of the world bulk carrier fleet. In the past four years growth has averaged 3.7%, including 4.2% in the twelve months to end-2024. Signs point to another 4% or more increase in 2025, amid higher newbuilding deliveries and an extended period of low scrapping.