Amid ongoing tensions affecting commodity import demand in a number of countries, heightened uncertainty surrounds the outlook. During 2026 as a whole, a continuation of last year’s slow growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade seems likely based on tentative indications.
 
Reflecting recent events, expectations for global economic activity this year have been downgraded. Prospects for countries comprising a high proportion of dry bulk import movements suggest restraints on consumer and business spending patterns. Industrial production and related commodity purchases may be affected adversely and, if inflationary pressures and rises in interest rates persist, a period of subdued activity is implied.
 
IRON ORE
Prospects for steel industry raw materials trades — iron ore and coking coal — indicate that growth during 2026 may be minimal. Volumes imported by most of the main buyers look set to be no higher than or below last year’s levels. But China’s iron ore imports strengthened in the first four months of this year, rising by 30mt (million tonnes) or 8%, to 417mt, providing a positive element.
 
Steel output data for the January to April 2026 period underlined the trend. Based on World Steel Association calculations, crude steel production in the main iron ore importing countries was weaker, compared with last year’s same period. In Japan the total declined by 1% while in the European Union and in South Korea 2% reductions were seen. The volume produced in China fell by a larger 4%, emphasizing the constraints affecting domestic steel usage.
 
COAL
Difficulties in ensuring or envisaging adequate global energy supplies in the past few months, and uncertainties about future availability have renewed the focus on energy security as a top priority in many parts of the world.
 
Despite continuing pressure to cut carbon emissions and raise the contribution of renewable energy sources, the recent problems have revived interest in coal as an immediately available solution.
 
Whether this re-focusing will have an enduring positive impact on coal trade may be debatable, but some short term consequences seem likely. At the beginning of this year it was suggested that world seaborne coal trade during 2026 as a whole could decline by perhaps 2%, after last year’s 4% fall. Currently, higher imports than expected earlier into some countries in Asia and elsewhere seem likely to assist in preventing or reducing this further reduction.
 
GRAIN & SOYA
The new 2026/27 grain and soya trade year is approaching and signs point to a mixed outlook. For wheat, about a third of the total, the marketing years begins on 1 July. For the remainder, corn and other coarse grains, plus soyabeans and meal, the year starts on 1 October. A slight 1% decrease in the overall total may result from a lower grain volume, more than offsetting a higher soya volume.
 
About half of the forecast 2026/27 downturn in wheat and coarse grains imports reflects lower Middle East imports. The world total in this category (including land movements, but mostly seaborne) is expected to be 14mt or 3% down, at 447mt, according to the latest (May update) figures prepared by the US Department of Agriculture. But a 7mt (3%) soya trade increase to 272mt could be a partial offset.
 
MINOR BULKS
Additional volumes of minor dry bulk commodities associated with various industrial processes could be limited this year. But expectations for bauxite and alumina suggest that a sizeable increase may be seen, amid China’s buoyant import demand.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Continued expansion in the handymax (45-69,999 deadweight tons) bulk carrier size group is likely during 2026. Similar newbuilding deliveries and scrapping compared with last year’s volumes (as shown in table 2) is expected to result in the 4% annual fleet growth rate persisting through the current year.