Mixed drivers shaping coal trade

Predictions of commodity import demand over the period ahead have become more tenuous as a result of recent events. Calculations for global seaborne dry bulk trade growth in 2026 as a whole point to extended weakness after last year’s minimal rise.

 

The latest (mid-April) forecasts for the world economy published by the International Monetary Fund suggest a 0.3 percentage points slowing in gross domestic product growth to 3.1% in 2026, after 3.4% last year. But the outcome, and calculations for individual dry bulk importing countries, will be shaped by the widespread effects of unpredictable changes in energy supplies and prices, and how consumers and businesses react.

 

Some estimates still indicate a continued decline in world seaborne coal trade this year. Several powerful influences are sustaining longer-term downwards pressure on coal usage and import demand. Yet the huge disruptions to international energy supplies emerging in the past couple of months tentatively imply a possibility of a somewhat firmer result than previously foreseen.

 

Asian countries’ seaborne imports of coal (steam and coking grades) totalled about 1,180mt (million tonnes) last year, almost nine-tenths of the global volume. Steam coal was the largest part of Asian imports, comprising about 80%. Table 1 shows the largest steam coal buyers. In 2026 some of these, and several smaller importing countries, may rely more on coal amid restricted volumes of other energy supplies, providing support for seaborne movements.

 

Tentative calculations for global iron ore trade during the current year remain positive although growth prospects seem limited. China’s imports, about three-quarters of the total, may be well supported but there are doubts about whether the relatively strong trend is sustainable over the remainder of the year. Other importers could also see maintained volumes.

 

In China the steel consumption and production background is still subdued. Crude steel production in the first quarter of 2026 was 247.6mt, a 5% reduction compared with last year’s same period, according to World Steel Association data.

Another sign implying a negative impact is the high level of iron ore stocks at Chinese ports, estimated at almost 180mt when the first quarter ended. These influences could restrain any further growth in iron ore buying.

 

Prospects for world trade in wheat plus corn and other coarse grains point to an enlarged total in the current 2025/26 trade year ending third quarter 2026. Looking further ahead expectations are less predictable, awaiting further clarification of grain output in northern hemisphere summer harvests in importing countries which will influence purchases from foreign suppliers.

 

Updated estimates published last month by the US Department of Agriculture show world wheat and coarse grains trade expanding by 26mt or 6% in 2025/26, reaching 455mt. These volumes are mostly seaborne. Contributing a large part of this upturn after weakness in the previous period, Asia’s regional imports could see an increase of 18mt (15%) to 137mt. A sizeable boost from an almost 10mt rise in China’s requirements, to about 33mt is expected to be the main driver.

 

Within the minor bulks segment, the ‘agricultural bulks’ sub-category consists of various oilseeds and meals, rice, sugar and other items, totalling around 280mt in 2025. An upwards trend seen in recent years may be maintained in 2026, based on indications emerging.

 

Vessels in the Capesize group of the world bulk carrier fleet form about two-fifths of the total. This group includes, for statistical purposes, all bulk carriers of 100,000 deadweight tonnes and over. As shown by table 2, growth of 1% was recorded last year, raising capacity to 407m dwt at year-end. In 2026 newbuilding deliveries are set to increase sharply and, assuming scrapping remains low, stronger fleet growth probably will result.