Indications pointing to commodity imports gaining momentum have become more solid recently, although weaker performances in some parts of the spectrum are still evident. Growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade during 2026 as a whole now seems likely to be stronger than last year’s minimal advance.
 
A trend which has provided support for dry bulk trade is the progress of global economic activity. This has proved more resilient than was expected to have resulted from the energy crisis unfolding over the past six months.
 
World gross domestic product may grow by 2.9% in 2026, compared with 3.4% last year based on the OECD organization’s latest (late September) forecast. Prospects for the period ahead are not clear, however and “remain heavily dependent on whether a durable resolution to the Middle East conflict is achieved” according to OECD analysts.
 
GRAIN & SOYA
Within the grain and soya trade segment about a third is comprised of soyabeans and meal. The outlook for this portion in the 2026/27 year is currently positive, at a slower rate of growth than seen in the previous twelve months. Potential for an upwards trend to continue is supported by expectations of further growth in China’s imports, contributing over two-fifths of world soya movements.
 
After increasing by an estimated 5% in marketing year 2025/26, global soyabeans and meal trade growth may slacken to under 2% growth in the new 2026/27 year now starting. US Department of Agriculture calculations shown in table 1 suggest that the total could rise by 4mt (million tonnes), from 270.8mt to 274.7mt. Expansion in the past twelve months reflected extra imports into a wide range of countries, while in the period ahead Asia’s imports may provide all of the additional volume.
 
COAL
Amid the global energy crisis unfolding this year, coal trade has strengthened. It now seems likely that the global seaborne total will be higher in 2026 than seen in the preceding twelve months. A cautious prediction by the International Energy Agency published last month suggested an almost flat figure, while other forecasters predict some growth.
 
The IEA’s mid-year coal market update report forecast world seaborne coal trade at 1382mt in 2026, following a 1,378mt total in 2025. It suggested that steam coal trade could be 1% lower at 1,062mt, while coking coal trade rises by 5% to 320mt. Weaker steam coal trade is mainly attributed to an expected 5% reduction in China’s volume, partly offset by a marginal increase among other countries as a group. An alternative calculation indicates a possibility that imports into many countries, especially in Asia, will see substantially higher volumes.
 
IRON ORE
Steelmaking raw materials consumption and imports are benefiting from signs of firmer trends in steel output in the main producing countries.
 
Nevertheless, most of this year’s potential increase in seaborne iron ore trade probably will be a result of extra imports into China.
 
Statistics for crude steel production published by the World Steel Association emphasize some contrasting outcomes. In the first eight months of 2026, compared with last year’s same period, China’s production was 3% lower. In Japan and the European Union totals were flat, while South Korea’s volume rose by 3%. Despite China’s output reduction, iron ore imports rose by over 5%.
 
MINOR BULKS
The minor bulks segment continues to show clear signs of growth in a number of commodity trades. A large proportion is expected to be contributed by additional bauxite and alumina imports, with China featuring prominently among buyers.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The Panamax (70-99,999 deadweight tonnes) size group, including Kamsarmaxes, comprising a quarter of the world bulk carrier fleet may grow by around 5% this year, as shown in table 2. This percentage represents a distinct acceleration of expansion.