New data from Veson Nautical shows Capesize earnings have doubled year-on-year to approximately $35,000/day in Q2 2026, driven by strong Chinese demand for bauxite and iron ore out of the Atlantic basin.
The earnings outlook could be fragile moving forward though, as supply threatens to outgrow demand. Veson's new
Shipping Market Outlook: Q3 2026 shows that Bulker fleet supply (~3.3% per year through 2029) is on track to outpace demand growth (~2.3% per year) starting late next year, pointing to progressive downward rate pressure just as today's earnings hit multi-year highs.
That forecast follows months of recovery in the Bulker market, as detailed in Veson's
2026 Mid-Year Shipping Market Report. Charter rates and asset valuations rose by as much as 100% and 60% respectively from their cyclical lows, and Greek owners returned to the newbuilding market in force.
Key highlights from the Mid-Year Report:
- Capesize earnings have doubled year-on-year: Averaging ~$35,000/day in Q2 2026; Panamax earnings rose to ~$20,000/day from ~$10,000/day.
- Guinea's Simandou mine is reshaping ton-mile demand: The long-haul Guinea-China bauxite route is displacing shorter-haul Australian supply; Chinese bauxite imports reached ~200 million tons in 2025, up 15% year-on-year.
- Fleet supply growth is set to overtake demand: Veson forecasts ~3.3% annual fleet growth through 2029 against ~2.3% demand growth, pointing to rate pressure from late 2027; 42% of the fleet is already 10-15 years old.
- Greek owners are back in force: 45 newbuilding orders were placed in 1H 2026, up from just six a year earlier, the highest Greek ordering volume in five years.