Brazil soybean production in 2018-19 will fall to 115.72 million mt, from 120.8 million mt last season, analyst Safras & Mercado forecast.
In its last forecast for the 2018-19 crop, Safras had called for a record 122.22 million mt.
The 5.3% revision lower was due to unfavorable drought in some producing states, Safras said.
“Weather issues seen starting in December brought relevant losses to yields in states like Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. Fields that suffered the most were the ones planted earlier, which were at a relevant development stage [when hit by the dryness],” it said.
The losses were irreversible in a good portion of the affected areas, but it was too early to fully account for the yield cuts. Fields seeded later did not suffer much and still have good yield potential, Safras said.
Brazil’s 2018-19 soybean crop was planted in Q4 2018 and will be harvested in Q1 2019. Exports for this season are usually accounted for from January to December 2019.
Source: S&P Global Platts