Prospects for global seaborne dry bulk trade over the
next twelve months are still broadly positive. There
are many signs of upwards import demand trends
around the world. However, a slackening pace could be
seen in the months immediately ahead. Annual 2010 totals
for most commodities probably will be sharply higher, but
most of the expansion seems to have occurred already, in
the first half.
During recent weeks optimism about the global economy
has begun to fade. Although most countries’ economic
output is predicted to continue increasing, slower growth
rates may emerge, after encouraging achievements in this
year’s first six months. Industrial activity and commodity
usage could be affected. Uncertainty about the USA and
Europe is especially prominent and there are some doubts
about the sustainability of China’s robust performance.
 
IRON ORE
Imports into China comprise two-thirds of global seaborne
iron ore trade and are therefore closely watched. Following
last year’s extremely fast 42% rise, to 628mt (million
tonnes), it now seems quite likely that the 2010 figure will
be only slightly higher, or may even decline. Some
indications suggest that the July–December quantity will be
similar to the first half 309mt volume, amid increased
domestic iron ore production.
Global iron ore trade this year could increase solidly, by
about 6%, as shown in table 1, raising the total to 980mt,
despite a lack of growth in China’s imports. Steel production
in Europe, Japan and Korea has revived, causing their raw
materials usage and imports to rebound. In the second half
of this year however, a levelling-off may be seen.
 
COAL
World seaborne coal trade is also benefiting from favourable
influences, and a volume of about 907mt in 2010 looks
achievable, an 8% increase. Coking coal comprises around
one-quarter, and strong expansion within this segment
reflects the steel industry’s recovery in most countries, as
well as particularly positive developments taking place in
India and China.
Despite restraints resulting from environmental policies in
many countries, an upwards trend in steam coal trade,
comprising the remaining three-quarters of overall seaborne
coal movements, is continuing robustly this year. Additional
volumes required by a wide range of Asian importers
including India, China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan could boost
the regional total.
 
GRAIN
Signs of positive factors affecting grain trade are much less
prominent than those visible elsewhere. Attention recently
has been focused on changes in trade patterns resulting from
reduced Black Sea supplies. The import demand picture has
not changed greatly and remains subdued.
On a calendar year basis, global seaborne grain trade,
including soyabeans, in 2010 may be similar to last year’s
289mt volume. For the twelve months period ahead,
stretching up to third quarter 2011, indications are not very
encouraging. While wheat and coarse grains trade may
decline (amid lower imports into the Middle East area and
Asia), soyabeans imports into China and a range of other
countries are expected to increase.
 
MINOR BULKS
About one-third of dry bulk trade consists of minor bulks,
although not all is actually shipped in bulk carriers. Many
commodities are closely linked to the manufacturing and
construction industries. Import demand for steel products,
forest products, bauxite/alumina, and cement, is benefiting
from recovering economic activity around the world. Overall
growth in 2010 could be 8–10%.
 
BULK CARRIER FLEET
The bulk carrier fleet’s expansion is accelerating further this
year, as indicated in table 2. Newbuilding deliveries are
likely to rise by 60% or more from last year’s total, to around
70m dwt. Although conversions probably will diminish,
scrapping seems unlikely to rise, and may decrease. The
result could be fleet growth of about 14% in 2010. However,
great uncertainty persists about how the main influences will
evolve in the months ahead.