By Thomas Zaidman, CEO, Sagitta Marine SA
It may have become a cliché to say that the international order has been upended but it is undoubtedly true that trade policy, tariffs, sanctions and intervention risk are as high as most market participants can remember.
A look back at history shows that tariff led trade, gunboat diplomacy, cabotage rules and political isolation all have precedents. Their impact tends to be dramatic and can be persistent, but they serve primarily political ends rather than economic cycles.
The talk in 2026 is of resilience in the global economy and with good reason. The rehearsals in trade disruption of the Suez Canal blockage and COVID have instilled a mindset of survivalism in the whole logistics chain.
Away from the zones of conflict, the survival of the fittest in the second half of this decade will be more about economics than geopolitics for the shipping industry. Beyond rises in freight rates, we have already seen the queues return at the Panama Canal, port congestion and bunker prices spiking.
The longer term trends are perhaps the more significant for shipping. The recent Geneva Dry event heard several speakers mention the rise of ‘de-dollarisation’ and moves towards regional trade alliances as a way to strengthen relationships.
If the world order has changed as much as it appears then it seems reasonable to assume that commodity producers, traders, shipowners and consumers will adapt their behaviour to reflect the new reality.
Higher costs, naturally, more uncertainty, perhaps, but overall a less coherent global trade picture that reflects regional priorities and defends against intervention risk.
The recently published Danish Shipping Finance Market Review comes to a similar conclusion. Shipping is entering a period where adaptability will matter more than expansion. The next decade is likely to reward operational flexibility above all else.
The analysts also suggest that shipping is no longer merely cyclical. The cycle is being overlaid with structural forces, with deglobalisation, regional manufacturing and energy transition policies steadily changing cargo flows.
In the end, geopolitics and economics must be linked. But if the trend is to deconstruct the former and seek bilateral, less global models, then the result for shipping will be, if not business as usual, then another new normal.